Random Opening Night Impressions

Despite watching real NBA basketball for the first time until June, I tried not to conclude too much from the 4 games that were on Opening Night. Many teams are still searching for their identity, and the bottom line is, what really matters is the form teams hit right around mid-April. However, here some things that I did find worth writing about from the two games I focused on (I got some action from the other two, but not enough to make extreme observations) - take them lightly, as it is still very, very early:

Boston 95, Cleveland 89

• Cleveland: After a very strong 1st quarter, Cleveland's offense collapsed, regressing back to that dreadful Lebron-vs-5 stage that we know all too well. If Mike Brown can't figure out a way to get the rest of the team involved, the Cavs will be in trouble.
• The Cavs really missed Delonte West last night. Daniel Gibson just isn't much more than a streaky spot-up shooter, leaving the Cavs with a very thing backcourt rotation, not to mention West being their best defensive guard. I don't know if and when West recovers from personal issues and comes back, and I truly hope that he does that only after regaining full mental health, but the Cavs probably need another guard even if he does return (Antonio Daniels has been mentioned).
• Anthony Parker too way too many bad, forced shots. Though he is fully capable of scoring at a high clip, this isn't the role he should fill for the Cavs.
• Shaquille O'neal and Zydrunas Ilgauskas can not play together under any circumstances. Each one of them is a defensive liability on their own, the two of them together is too much.
• Speaking of Z, he seemed incredibly uncomfortable coming off the bench. I don't think Shaq will agree to playing as a 6th man, but after years of establishing Z early in the game, the Cavs need to find a new way of keeping him effective. Shaq, on the other hand, struggled offensively in the second half (1 of 5 from the field) after a decent first one - he still has plenty of time to find his rythem, but if he can't score consistently in the post against big teams, his acquasition is kind of moot.


• Boston: Boston played great defense throughout the game, but I still have my concerns. The Celts couldn't do anything about Lebron, who torched them for 38 points on 22 shots. Admitedly, if Lebron wants to torch a team he will, but in my eyes Boston still lacks that Posey-type defensive presence at the wing positions that was so crucial for their 2008 title.
• Free Agent signee Rasheed Wallace looke awfully trigger happy, attempting six 3 pointers. It's too late in his career to move Sheed back in the post, but against teams with better defenders at the 4 spot he can't shoot that much.
• Kevin Garnett seemed healthy, but not spectacular, with 13 points (5 of 10 from the field), 10 rebounds, and 3 blocks. However, he did botch a wide open dunk. Lets not forget that the NBA season is very long, and it's KG's April form that will matter, eventually.
• Ray Allen had a very good first half, and a very bad second one. Allen has always been a very productive player, but I just can't shake off the feeling that he is mostly just a shooter at this stage of his career (one of the reasons I have Boston pegged as #3 in the East).

Portland 96, Houston 87

• Portland: Greg Oden was absolutely terrible offensivly, scoring only 2 points, and putting up 7 turnovers (many of them on offensive fouls - don't have the exact numbers with me). However, Oden produced a defensive display of the highest quality, grabbing 12 rebounds, blocking 5 shots, and altering many more. The Blazers are so stacked offensively, that they can afford to give Greg's offensive game time to evolve. If he continues defending like last night, it could be enough to make Portland an elite squad.
• Martell Webster started in place of the injured Nicolas Batum, and had a very efficient 14 points on 7 shots. Webster missed last season due to injury, but is a gifted scorer, with great athleticism. If Webster can start fulfilling the promise he has shown at time, the Blazers will benifit greatly, whether via a strengthed rotation, or by adding yet another trade asset to a seemingly infinite collection.
• Andre Miller showed no sign of his reported unhappiness after signing with the Blazers in the offseason, coming off the bench for 9 points and seven assists. I actually think Miller fits better with the Blazers second unit then the first, as starter Steve Blake's outside shooting better complements superstar Brandon Roy. It was nice to see Miller doing his best to fit in, since he has always been a player who has played well below his abilities due to a bad attitude.
• Travis Outlaw led all scorers with 23 points. The Blazers have reportedly been very open to trading Outlaw and his expiring contract, but the guy can just plain shoot. I don't really like seeing him at the 4 - he is a small forward in every way - but he can contribute regardless of position.

• Houston: David Andersen had 11 points and 5 rebounds in his NBA debut. I really like Andersen's offensive game - he was amongst the Euroleagues top big men for years - and he could prove to be a very valuable scorer for a Houston team that will struggle to put points up. Very underrated offseason pickup for the wonderful Daryl Morey.
• Chase Budinger could be another potential scorer for this team. The second round draft pick was once considered a lottery lock, but fell due to concerns about him being one dimensional - a scorer and not much else. With a team desperate for scoring, however, he could be huge.
• Aaron Brooks broke out last postseason when he carried the Rockets to a 7th game against the eventual champions, but I'm not sold. Brooks is way to small to guard shooting guards (he can barely guard point guards), but he plays like a 2. If Brooks doesn't develop a passing game, I don't think he can handle the ball. Brooks scored 19 last night, but he used the ball mainly for dribbling aimlessly in all directions. Not the guy you want distributing the ball to the rest of your team.
• I love Trevor Ariza. The Lakers wouldn't have won the title without him last year. But he's a role player - a perfect role player, but a role player nontheless. If this Houston squad turns to him as a leading scorer, they're in trouble.

The Boston Celtics

Coach: Doc Rivers
Last Season: 62-20, lost in Eastern Conference Semifinals
Key Additions: Rasheed Wallace (Free Agent, Detroit Pistons), Marquis Daniels (FA, Indiana Pacers), Shelden Williams (FA, Minnesota Timberwolves)
Key Losses: Mikki Moore (FA, Golden State Warriors), Gabe Pruitt (FA)

Offseason: The Celtics' biggest offseason addition has to be a healthy Kevin Garnett. After KG's knees broke down last February, the Celtics, one year removed from the title, survived an epic 1st round playoff series against the Bulls, before bowing down to the Magic. However, the Celtics wanted to insure that whatever the case, Brian Scalabrine, Mikki Moore (who has since left), and their type won’t get major playoff minutes in the frontcourt this season. To address this, the Celtics signed former All-star Rasheed Wallace. Rasheed, coming off a terrible season in Detroit (despite putting up 12 and 7, he visibly quit on the team, highlighted by his 6 pts and 6 rebounds per game in the playoff sweep vs. Cleveland). The Celtics, however, seem confident that Rasheed’s decline was a result of the Pistons going nowhere, and that on a title contender, and more importantly, with Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce as a positive influence, Rasheed will do just fine. The Celts then resigned restricted free agent Glen Davis, who had a very good postseason, specifically improving his mid-range shot (including a game winning jumper in game 4 against Orlando). With Wallace, Davis, Garnett, and the ever-improving Kendrick Perkins, the Celtics now have 4 strong big men, with Shelden Williams, the disappointing 5th pick of the 2006 draft, brought on as an insurance policy.

The Celtics’ other free agent signing was Marquis Daniels. Daniels played as a swingman his whole career, but due to his strong ball handling skills, is expected to play point guard for the Celtics. The Celtics hope that Daniels can fill the gaping hole the Celtics have at backup point guard, and plan to play him in together with Eddie House, enabling House to guard point guards, but relieving him of running the offense. However, this is a huge gamble, as adjusting to a new position is never easy, and Daniels is already 28. Daniels’ contract was signed at the value of the bi-annual exception (slightly under 2 million), meaning he is a bargain financially-wise no matter how this pans out, but he has only once topped 62 games in a season, and isn’t a strong defender. I see Daniels more as a last resort signing, due to the lack of decent point guards on the market, and the desperate need to upgrade the bench (Tony Allen, the Celtics’ back up shooting guard, just isn’t a very good player).

The surprise of the Celtics’ offseason, however, was the trade that didn’t happen. After being the Celtics’ best player last postseason, Rajon Rondo was openly shopped for a short period of time, raising questions regarding the Celtics’ willingness to offer him a contract extension (he is posed to become a restricted free agent next summer). The talk eventually dulled down, but it will be interesting to see if it affects Rondo’s play.

X-Factors:
-Kevin Garnett’s knees: Basically, no matter what else happens, it all comes down to this. Garnett is the Celtics’ best player, best defender, emotional leader – you name it, he does it all. With him, they’re title contenders, without him, they’re not. It’s that simple. At the age of 33, after playing over 1100 games in full gear, and a very, very difficult procedure, medicine is not on his side, but Garnett has the heart of a lion, and all of the regular season to get into shape. Therefore, judging this team before the playoffs is ridiculously premature.

- James Posey: Posey left after the 2008 title to sign with New Orleans for more money, and the Celtics still haven’t found a replacement for his leadership, defense, and shooting of the bench. Who guards Lebron/Vince/Kobe/Manu/Wade? Daniels is not a good defender or a good shooter, and Paul Pierce can’t be asked to carry such a huge load both on offense and on defense. In my opinion, this was the fatal flaw in Boston’s offseason plan – not bringing in a player to fill a role that proved crucial for them in the past.

- Age: Garnett is 33, Allen 34, Pierce 32, and Rasheed 35. The Celtics were absolutely exhausted last postseason, and though it can be attributed to their short rotation, age must be a concern. Doc Rivers needs to get his team fresh to the playoffs, or they won’t have much of a chance to advance past Cleveland and Orlando.

- Chemistry: Rasheed Wallace has always had character questions; Marquis Daniels has similarly been somewhat problematic, although not as volatile; the reason to the Celtics shopping Rondo, reportedly, has to do with him not fitting in very well; and Ray Allen, despite being one of the leagues perennial “nice-guys”, is in a contract year, playing for what would probably be his last NBA contract. All of this adds up to some serious question marks. Seeing how this team’s togetherness was a huge factor in winning the title two years ago, if the players can’t get along it will be disastrous for their second bid.

Prediction: The difference between the 3rd place and the 4th place in the East is huge, so the Celts will finish 3rd at the very least. However, I don’t think they’re deep enough to be considered on par with the Magic and Cavs, especially considering their old age. Many questions are still up in the air – which Rasheed will the Celtics get, how much Pierce and Allen have in the tank, and can Rondo continue his meteoric rise. Even if Garnett is healthy, that’s just too many questions for me. 57-25, 3rd in East.

Rasheed to Boston

Rasheed Wallace is taking his bald spot to Beantown next season for a deal (reportedly) in the 2 year, 12 million range. While Wallace is still, at the age of 34 (35 by the start of the season), a very good basketball player, is this really what the Celtics wanted to do with their offseason?

The Celtics had two glaring weaknesses las postseason: lack of depth, especially up front with Kevin Garnett injured; and a failure to fill the void left by James Posey, who filled a 6th man, defensive stopper role, while also consistently knocking down the 3 and enabling the Celts to play small. The Wallace signing all but closes the window on filling that Posey role: now that the Celts used their entire midlevel exception on Sheed, they have very little flexibility as to signing another wing. Unless Grant Hill signs with them for the minimum (still possible, but unlikely since both the Suns and the Knicks are reportedly offering him more money), that void will be left unfilled.

As for frontcourt depth. As a player who can play both the 4 and the 5, it would seems that the days of Brian Scalabrine getting crunch minutes are over. But are they?

Personally, I see no way that the Celtics can keep their own free agent, Glen Big Baby Davis, now that they brought Sheed. Davis emerged as an excellent mid-range shooter, a legitimate rotation (if not starting) PF, and a crunch time contributor (including a game winner in game 4 against the Orlando Magic) last postseason. In fact, one could argue that he was the Celtics best player in the Orlando series. Do you really think he would be content on returning to the Celts as their 4th big man? Not to mention the financial burden that would be his new contract (if Paul Millsap is worth 10 million per year then Davis is worth at least 5). So basically, the Celtics are trading Rasheed for Davis. While an upgrade, it's not a big one. Last season, Sheed avereged 12.1 and 7.4 on 42% shooting, in 32 minutes per game. Davis avereged 7 and 4 on 44% shooting in 21 minutes. In terms of per-minute production, that's almost the same, and this was even before Davis upgraded his play to a whole new level in the postseason.

To summarize, there were better moves out there. Whether it was filling a need just as important with a wingman (such as Grant Hill, Anthony Parker, or Josh Chilldress), or improving internally by signing a young talented player who has proven his value to the team (Davis). The Sheed signing may eventually pay off, but I think the Celtics were to fixated on a big-name veteran, which caused them to miss out on better options.