Cleveland 102, Los Angeles 87

This year’s slate of Christmas day games included probably the most hyped up game of the entire season: the Cleveland Cavaliers against the Los Angeles Lakers, Lebron James meets Kobe Bryant. Puppet-a-puppet. While I try to avoid drawing conclusions from single, meaningless regular season games, I was looking forward to this one, since direct games between title contenders tend to come with playoff-like intensity, with both sides trying to pull out a “statement” win. Also, the Cavaliers and Lakers only play each other twice each season, and I wanted to see how the two teams matched up, after last years seemingly dominant Cavaliers team fell to the Magic due to unfavorable matchups. Sadly, the game wasn’t nearly as close as the early predictions suggested, but here are some things I noticed that could be big in the future:

The Cavaliers dominated this game, hounding the Lakers into 36.5% shooting, and getting into their heads. Once a few calls went against the Lakers’ way (my take on that: Shaq probably got away with blocking foul or two, but all in all, the Lakers got calls in the first half, the Cavs in the second, and the officiating as a whole seemed fairly even), the Lakers lost their heads, leading to technicals on Kobe, Fisher, Odom (twice), the bench (not subbing in for Odom after he was ejected), and the fans (throwing foam fingers on the court. I continue to be amazed by the Staples Center crowd. Kudos to them for actually showing emotiong that doesn't revolve around tacos, but throwing foam fingers? Was it "6 year olds get in for free night"?).

For the Cavaliers, this game should push them back into the public’s short list of contenders. I’m not really sure why they weren’t there earlier, but no harm done. After struggling early on this season with adjusting to the big Shaquasition and Delonte West’s personal issues, the Cavs are rolling, with an impressive 3-1 road trip. What impressed me most was the versatility displayed during this trip: after beating the Phoenix Suns with a monsterous 4th quarter behind a small ball line up that Bill Simmons called “poop-in-your-pants-scary" (Lebron at the 4, Anderson Varejao at center), the Cavs beat the Lakers going big, with Shaquille O’neal and Zydrunas Ilgauskas playing together extensive minutes despite some pretty bad previous results. The Cavs proved that they can deal with LA’s size, pretty much shutting down Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. Shaq and Z are still pretty terrible at defending the pick and roll, but specifically against LA, which doesn’t run the pick and roll as much, the pairing works. Also, Anthony Parker did a great job on Kobe - forcing tough shots, contesting jumpers, recording 2 blocks and altering several more by my eyes. Parker was brought in to make 3s and take the pressure of Lebron at defending perimeter guys: so far he has done only the former, but defending Kobe well is a great place to start.

As for offense, I know I’m not the first one to say this, but as Mo Williams goes, so does Cleveland. Mo torched Derek Fisher for 28 points on 8 for 13 shooting, combining long range bombs with penetration, and even some posting up. Anthony Parker had a bad shooting night – 1 for 5, missed all 4 of his attempts beyond the arc – but Jamario Moon and Delonte West filled in, each making a 3 and Moon hitting 2 more long range jumpers and finishing with 13 points on 7 shots. The Cavs shot 54% from the floor, with Lebron again proving why he is so great – struggling with his shot (27 points on a decent 9 for 19 shooting night, yet an atrocious 3 for 12 on jumpers from 16 feet and out), he played second fiddle to Williams, finding him for open jumpers doing his damage inside (including two absolutely gorgeous post moves). Seven turnovers for Lebron, but two of them were charges, and one came when the game was over, so while that isn’t a good number by any standards, I wouldn’t.

Truly, a great all-around game for the Cavs, who look downright scary after three impressive wins (the Suns, Kings and Lakers are a combined 37-9 at home this season, with three of those losses coming against the Cavs in the past week). The only downside I could see in this game was how lost J.J. Hickson seemed on defense, posting a team low +/- of -9. He played well in his first few games in the starting line-up, but the momentum caused by the move seems to have passed, and while I do think the Cavs could earn a valuable playoff contributor by giving him minutes, it would be hard to justify keeping him on the floor if he keeps playing like this.

Cut to the Lakers: hard to tell how much credit should be given to the Cavs’ defense and how much to the Lakers’ poor offense, since even against the best of the best, the defending champs should shoot more than 36% from the field. I would credit both: the Cavs did a great job stifling the Laker big men (Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol are shooting 57% and 53% shooting, respectively, yet shot a combined 6 for 16), and yet not many nights will you see Kobe Bryant shoot only 11 for 32 from the floor. Bryant, in particular, had a very bad offensive game: despite his impressive box score (35 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists), he forced bad shots, missed many of the midrange jumpers that he usually lives on, and looked to me like he was pretty tired in the second half (more on that later). Kobe supporters would say that he had to take the extra shot attempts, with Bynum and Gasol shooting so poorly, but against a team with weak post defenders (of Cleveland’s four big men, only Shaq can truly defend a strong post presence one-on-one), those two have got to get the ball more. The Lakers can’t win a game with Kobe taking twice as many shots as his starting frontcourt, under any circumstances.

The Lakers as a whole played a pretty bad game offensively – only Ron Artest gave them a good game, with 13 points – but to be honest, except for Kobe’s mid range game, I didn’t really see them miss any shots that they usually make, except maybe Artest’s breakaway layups (then again, he misses those a lot). However, don’t make the mistake of dismissing this as a game that the Lakers just decided to let go – Kobe clearly wanted this game very badly, so much that he was pushing and hounding Lebron on defense late in the 4th quarter, even though the game was pretty much over. Perhaps this was the reason that he played way too much in this game, getting his first rest only midway through the 4th and playing a game high 45 minutes. I get that this is a big game, and that Kobe is a fierce competitor, but he is 31, and those knees aren’t getting any younger. In a December game, he shouldn’t top 40.

Then again, there is a good reason for Kobe’s high minutes: the Laker bench is terrible. This is a major concern going forward. The disparity between L.A.’s starting five (probably best in the league, though Boston and Orlando are in the discussion) and the bench is enourmous: after Lamar Odom, who is averaging a career low 8.5 points per game, the Lakers truly have no help from their second unit. Sasha Vujacic is a shell of the shell he was last year, Luke Walton is injured and wasn’t all that much to begin with, and Josh Powell and DJ Mbenga really aren’t all that. All that remains is the point guard combo of Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar, but Brown is good mainly for highlight plays and energy spurts, and Farmar clearly doesn’t mesh well with Phil Jackson and should be moved for his own good. L.A.’s main six contributors are good enough to do it alone on most nights, especially in the playoffs when rotations shorten, but seeing how deep other contenders are, the Lakers need to find somebody who can be a spark off the bench.

All in all, this game teaches us more about Cleveland than about the Lakers – mainly, that Shaq works against the big teams, that they can still defend with the best of them, and that Mo can show up for big games after last postseason’s collapse. However, with L.A. now dropping to only 6-5 against teams with a winning record, it should be asked if they aren’t as dominant as we thought. Being the defending champions, they get the benefit of the doubt, but this year’s title is still far from certain for the Lakers – and the road to it, despite everything, still goes through Cleveland.

Random Opening Night Impressions

Despite watching real NBA basketball for the first time until June, I tried not to conclude too much from the 4 games that were on Opening Night. Many teams are still searching for their identity, and the bottom line is, what really matters is the form teams hit right around mid-April. However, here some things that I did find worth writing about from the two games I focused on (I got some action from the other two, but not enough to make extreme observations) - take them lightly, as it is still very, very early:

Boston 95, Cleveland 89

• Cleveland: After a very strong 1st quarter, Cleveland's offense collapsed, regressing back to that dreadful Lebron-vs-5 stage that we know all too well. If Mike Brown can't figure out a way to get the rest of the team involved, the Cavs will be in trouble.
• The Cavs really missed Delonte West last night. Daniel Gibson just isn't much more than a streaky spot-up shooter, leaving the Cavs with a very thing backcourt rotation, not to mention West being their best defensive guard. I don't know if and when West recovers from personal issues and comes back, and I truly hope that he does that only after regaining full mental health, but the Cavs probably need another guard even if he does return (Antonio Daniels has been mentioned).
• Anthony Parker too way too many bad, forced shots. Though he is fully capable of scoring at a high clip, this isn't the role he should fill for the Cavs.
• Shaquille O'neal and Zydrunas Ilgauskas can not play together under any circumstances. Each one of them is a defensive liability on their own, the two of them together is too much.
• Speaking of Z, he seemed incredibly uncomfortable coming off the bench. I don't think Shaq will agree to playing as a 6th man, but after years of establishing Z early in the game, the Cavs need to find a new way of keeping him effective. Shaq, on the other hand, struggled offensively in the second half (1 of 5 from the field) after a decent first one - he still has plenty of time to find his rythem, but if he can't score consistently in the post against big teams, his acquasition is kind of moot.


• Boston: Boston played great defense throughout the game, but I still have my concerns. The Celts couldn't do anything about Lebron, who torched them for 38 points on 22 shots. Admitedly, if Lebron wants to torch a team he will, but in my eyes Boston still lacks that Posey-type defensive presence at the wing positions that was so crucial for their 2008 title.
• Free Agent signee Rasheed Wallace looke awfully trigger happy, attempting six 3 pointers. It's too late in his career to move Sheed back in the post, but against teams with better defenders at the 4 spot he can't shoot that much.
• Kevin Garnett seemed healthy, but not spectacular, with 13 points (5 of 10 from the field), 10 rebounds, and 3 blocks. However, he did botch a wide open dunk. Lets not forget that the NBA season is very long, and it's KG's April form that will matter, eventually.
• Ray Allen had a very good first half, and a very bad second one. Allen has always been a very productive player, but I just can't shake off the feeling that he is mostly just a shooter at this stage of his career (one of the reasons I have Boston pegged as #3 in the East).

Portland 96, Houston 87

• Portland: Greg Oden was absolutely terrible offensivly, scoring only 2 points, and putting up 7 turnovers (many of them on offensive fouls - don't have the exact numbers with me). However, Oden produced a defensive display of the highest quality, grabbing 12 rebounds, blocking 5 shots, and altering many more. The Blazers are so stacked offensively, that they can afford to give Greg's offensive game time to evolve. If he continues defending like last night, it could be enough to make Portland an elite squad.
• Martell Webster started in place of the injured Nicolas Batum, and had a very efficient 14 points on 7 shots. Webster missed last season due to injury, but is a gifted scorer, with great athleticism. If Webster can start fulfilling the promise he has shown at time, the Blazers will benifit greatly, whether via a strengthed rotation, or by adding yet another trade asset to a seemingly infinite collection.
• Andre Miller showed no sign of his reported unhappiness after signing with the Blazers in the offseason, coming off the bench for 9 points and seven assists. I actually think Miller fits better with the Blazers second unit then the first, as starter Steve Blake's outside shooting better complements superstar Brandon Roy. It was nice to see Miller doing his best to fit in, since he has always been a player who has played well below his abilities due to a bad attitude.
• Travis Outlaw led all scorers with 23 points. The Blazers have reportedly been very open to trading Outlaw and his expiring contract, but the guy can just plain shoot. I don't really like seeing him at the 4 - he is a small forward in every way - but he can contribute regardless of position.

• Houston: David Andersen had 11 points and 5 rebounds in his NBA debut. I really like Andersen's offensive game - he was amongst the Euroleagues top big men for years - and he could prove to be a very valuable scorer for a Houston team that will struggle to put points up. Very underrated offseason pickup for the wonderful Daryl Morey.
• Chase Budinger could be another potential scorer for this team. The second round draft pick was once considered a lottery lock, but fell due to concerns about him being one dimensional - a scorer and not much else. With a team desperate for scoring, however, he could be huge.
• Aaron Brooks broke out last postseason when he carried the Rockets to a 7th game against the eventual champions, but I'm not sold. Brooks is way to small to guard shooting guards (he can barely guard point guards), but he plays like a 2. If Brooks doesn't develop a passing game, I don't think he can handle the ball. Brooks scored 19 last night, but he used the ball mainly for dribbling aimlessly in all directions. Not the guy you want distributing the ball to the rest of your team.
• I love Trevor Ariza. The Lakers wouldn't have won the title without him last year. But he's a role player - a perfect role player, but a role player nontheless. If this Houston squad turns to him as a leading scorer, they're in trouble.

NBA Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

I doubt that I'll be able to preview all 30 teams in the league, but I will make an honest to god attempt to preview as much as possible. With that in mind, here are your 2009/2010 Cleveland Cavaliers.

Coach: Mike Brown
Last Season: 66-16, lost in Eastern Conference Finals
Key Additions: Shaquille O’neal (trade, Phoenix), Anthony Parker (Free Agent, Toronto), Jamario Moon (FA, Miami), Leon Powe (FA, Boston Celtics), Danny Green (Draft).
Key Losses: Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovich (trade, Phoenix), Wally Szczerbiak (FA), Assistant Coach Jon Kuester (now head coach of the Detroit Pistons).

Offseason: Cleveland’s offseason mission of “getting Lebron a title so he won’t leave next summer” started off with the big Shaquasition: 4 time NBA champion and future Hall of Famer Shaquille O’neal joined the team in a full-fledged salary dump by the Phoenix Suns. Shaq was brought on to address two of the Cavs’ biggest weaknesses in last season’s crushing 6 game loss to the Orlando Magic – the lack a low post scorer, or really any scorer not named “Lebron”, and a big body capable of guarding Dwight Howard, who proved to quick for last year’s starting tandem of Anderson Varejao and Zydrunas Ilgauskas.

However, due to Shaq’s migration north being analysed to a pulp by every basketball enthusiast on the planet, the rest of Cleveland’s offseason went by somewhat under-the-radar. Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, both brought as free agents, give the Cavs two long, defensive swingmen, meaning that Lebron is no longer the only player on board that is capable of guarding the Rashard Lewises of the world. Both players are also very capable of knocking down shots, particularly Parker, who has established himself as a clutch player who can create his own shot during his 6 year Euroleague tenure. Leon Powe, another offseason pickup who came cheap from the Celtics due to injury concerns (a torn ACL expected to keep him on the sidelines until January at the earliest), is fully capable of giving the team quality minutes at the 4 come playoff time. The Cavs also re-signed free agent Anderson Varejao to a 6 year, 42 million deal - probably too much for a role player like Varejao, but still important, as Varejao brings much to the table for the Cavs.

Clevelands strong offseason was marred only by the departure of Assistant coach John Kuester. Kuester, who became the head coach of the Detroit Pistons, functioned as the Cavs’ offensive coordinator last season, and was largely responsible for Cleveland's progression from the “give-Lebron-the-ball-and-hope-for-the-best” offense to an efficient offensive team (4th in offensive efficiency). However, during Cleveland’s 4-2 loss to the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals, the offense regressed back to 1-on-5, and the Cavs struggled to put points on the board. Mike Brown’s ability to run the offense without Kuester, and not only his regular stifling defense, will go a long way towards bringing Lebron that ring.

To summarize, Cleveland addressed all their weaknesses during the offseason: a big man capable of guarding Dwight Howard (Shaq has had some success with this in the past), a low post scorer (Shaq), another perimiter player capable of creating a shot (Parker), defensive swingmen (Parker and Moon), and frontcourt depth (Powe). A very strong summer indeed.


X-Factors:
- Shaquille O’neal: Quite fittingly, the biggest player is the biggest question mark. The Artist Formally Known as the Most Dominant Player in the Game will be 38 years old come playoff time, but is coming off a very productive season in which he averaged 18 and 8 and returned to the All-Star game. However, his personal rebirth came at the expense of his team, as the Suns missed the playoffs for the first time since the arrival of Steve Nash.

- Delonte West: After losing some of last season’s training camp due to treatment for depression and a mood disorder, West emerged as a starting shooting guard, defensive ace, deadly shooter (40% from three point range), and general glue-guy. However, West continued to reveal his troubling personality this summer, being arrested for speeding on a motorcycle while carrying 3 weapons, and yet again missing the beginning of training camp due to personal issues. While the acquisitions of Parker and Moon mean the Cavs are much better equipped to replace West if necessary, he is still an important part of their team, and a very good basketball player. West’s ability to put a bumpy summer behind him for the second consecutive year and contribute at a high level will go a long way to bringing Cleveland to the promised land.

-Zydrunas Ilgauskas: The Lithuanian big man is an X-Factor for two reasons: first of all, after starting for the Cavs in the middle the past decade, Big Z is now a bench player. His ability to contribute in this new role could be crucial for the Cavs’, as very little teams in the league have such a strong 2nd string center. Secondly, Z’s 11 million dollar contract expires next summer, meaning that if the Cavs still feel they need to improve, they can send him (or Shaq’s 20 million expiring deal, or both) to a lottery team looking for cap relief, and strengthen their team. This could be huge – don’t forget that the Lakers weren’t anywhere near a title before Memphis gave them Pau Gasol for peanuts.

- J.J. Hickson/Leon Powe: This isn’t really that much of an X-Factor as a possible bonus. Last season, Hickson showed a lot of potential before being slowed down by injury. Reports out of Cleveland are that these injuries are behind him, and his preseason form has ranged from solid to surprisingly good. Similarly, Leon Powe provided the Boston Celtics with great hustle, defence and rebounding, when healthy. If Hickson can have a breakout sophomore campaign, and/or Powe can recover from his injuries, the Cavs could have a very good 4th, and even 5th big man, turning front court depth from a weakness to a strength.

Prediction: The Cavs were the best team in the league during the regular season, and I believe that they had a legitimate chance to win against the eventual champion Lakers. Sadly for them, they met a very good Orlando team, who, more importantly, matched up against them perfectly. Even though the Magic and the Celtics made very strong offseason moves, I think the Cavs had the strongest offseason in the East, and arguably in the league, not only strengthening the team, but addressing their matchup problems. The large number of X-Factors tell you that this is far from a done deal, but the sheer presence of Lebron James has been enough for the Cavs to overachieve for the past few seasons, and it should be again. 63-19, 1st in the East, and my favorites for the title.

Latest Offseason moves

Cleveland signs free agent Anthony Parker, resigns Anderson Varejao:

I love the Parker move. Love it. Many fans will see it as a low-profile signing, one that could have been replaced by a bigger name, but in this free agent market, Parker is top notch. As one who lives in Israel saw Parker on a regular basis when he was playing for Maccabi Tel-Aviv, I can tell you that Parker is extremely underrated: excellent defender, creates his own shot, very good rebounder for his position (led Maccabi in rebounding as a SF). He wasn't the Euroleague MVP just because he's american. Great signing.

As for Varejao? Look, Cleveland had to resign him, and he had to resign. Both parties are perfect fits - there is no system better for Varejao than Cleveland. But at 6 years, 50 million? In this market? For a role player? I have no idea how Danny Ferry can defend this one. Good general thinking, terrible negotiating.

Antonio Mcdyess to Spurs

The Spurs do it again. After bringing in Richard Jefferson in a deal whose only downside was frontcourt depth, the Spurs use free agency for... wait for it... frontcourt depth! Perennialy one of the few franchises in the league who actually know what they're doing, the Spurs continue to retool around their big 3 in an attempt to get Tim Duncan his 5th championship. And they're great at it. Mcdyess is a legitimate starting center for any team in this league, and completes perhaps the best 5 in the NBA (I don't say starting 5 because Ginobili is a "bench player").

Chris Andersen resigns with Denver

Actually, I just wanted to talk about the Nuggets, with the Birdman just serving as a perfect example for my case. The Nuggets overachieved last year in the sense that they played much better than they were expected to. However, this was the result of basically everything falling into place for them: every single player on that team had something to prove, and every single one of them did. But what are the chances of that happening two years in a row? Look at Andersen. Last year: playing for the league minimum, after being suspended for drug use, trying to redeem himself. This year? fit for the rest of his career with a 5 year, 26 million deal which pays him until he's 36. Which player do you think will be more motivated?

Looking at the Denver Nuggets, they're virtually unchanged (Dahantay Jones left to the Pacers, Ty Lawson was brought in via draft). But inner complacency, combined with the Spurs retooling and the Blazers gaining valuable experience tells me that the Nugs will probably compete for the second round of the playoffs next year, and no more.