No? Well, you should.
The Orlando Magic, less than two months removed from a 4-1 loss to the LA Lakers in the NBA finals, are finally doing what we want to see from almost-champions - getting better. No cutting back financially, no getting young and aiming for 3 years from now, just good, old-fashioned improvement. And boy, is that working great.
The Magic's offseason can be summarized to this: Hedo Turkoglu, Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston and Tony Battie for Vince Carter, Ryan Anderson, Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes. While Hedo shined last year in the playoffs, he isn't as good as Toronto's 55 million, 5 year offer would suggest - basically, he's a 30 year old who gives you 15-17 points, 5 red 5 assists. Vince Carter - despite all his bad rep - gives you at least a 20, 5 and 5, and is better at creating his own shot. The only thing the Magic might miss Hedo is his playmaking abilities, but Carter is a very underrated passer, and with a healthy Jameer Nelson, they should be fine.
Apart from replacing their biggest offseason loss with a better player, the Magic addressed another problem: their dependence on Dwight Howard. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year averaged for 13.8 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game - the whole team, including Howard, averaged 43.25 and 5.35, meaning Howard accounted for loosely 32% of the team's rebonds, and 55% of their blocks. In fact, the Cleveland Cavaliers based their whole offensive scheme in the Eastern Finals on attacking Howard with the hope fouling him out, and opening the middle. Well, no more. with the signing of Brandon Bass, the Magic get a strong, defensive, rebounding PF to play with Howard in the frontcourt. This enables Rashard Lewis to move back to his more natural position at small forward, no longer needing to guard the Dirk Nowitzki's and Pau Gasol's of the world. Combined with the Magic re-signing Marcin Gortat - even though 34 million over 5 years for a career backup seems a bit much, Gortat could probably start for most NBA teams and has played very well in limited minutes - the Magic now have a very strong frontcourt.
With the newly acquired experience of playing in the finals, the NBA's most dominant defensive force, 4 all-stars, and maybe the deepest team in the league (the Magic are 2 deep at every position, though they could use a better backup point guard than Anthony Johnson - they reportedly went after CJ Watson before signing Barnes), the Magic will be force to be reckoned with next season. And in a league where we see players being moved around for financial relief on a daily basis, their effort to improve instead of standing pat and hoping for the best should be applauded.
Showing posts with label Transactions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Transactions. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Sunday, July 12, 2009
The Paul Millsap Situation
The Portland Trailblazers have signed the Utah Jazz's Paul Millsap to an offer sheet worth around 36 million for 4 years. Since Millsap is a restricted free agent, the Jazz have 7 days to match the offer, thus retaining Millsap. However, the Jazz are trying to cut costs, and with Mehmet Okur's 2 year 21 million extension, and Carlos Boozer and Kyle Korver deciding against opting out of their contracts, the Jazz are now committed to a lot of payroll. To add insult to injury, the Blazers have shrewdly added a very hefty signing on clause reportedly worth around 10.3 million to Millsap's offer, giving the Jazz even more financial headaches.
The thing is, Paul Millsap is a player I have no idea what to think about. After two very solid years off the bench as a second round energy guy, he blossomed in Boozer's injury-induced absence to the tune of 16 pts (on 54.5% shooting), 10 reb, 1.2 stl and 1 block a game in 38 starts. Monster numbers, and an absolute bargain at 7-8 million per year.
However, I'm not sure that Millsap can keep this going on a regular basis. A look at his season splits show that his absolutely monstrous number for December and January went way down as the season progressed. Since Millsap is such a high energy guy, he wears and tears very quickly, and one must wonder if he can play with the same effectiveness over 40 minutes as he can over 28. This is why I think the Blazers are making such a smart move with Millsap - adding him to a rotation with 3 other bigs, including Lamarcus Aldridge to start in front of him at the 4. Paul Millsap is best used as a 6th man, someone who can energize the second unit, and then stay on the court in crunch time. Perfect fit for Portland.
However, if the Jazz aren't keeping Boozer - and they are reportedly trying very hard to get rid of him - Millsap doesn't make sense by himself. He simply can't hold the fort alone at the PF position. He doesn't have the stamina. If he gets it, he's a borderline all-star, but as of now, the Jazz either need someone else to fill in minutes in their frontcourt rotation, and allow Millsap to get his rest, or, they need to give up on Millsap and move Boozer for a better fit. Which brings us to a segment I like to call - Trades That Should Happen:
The New York Knicks sign David Lee to a 5 year, 50 million contract, then trade Lee and Jared Jeffries to the Utah Jazz for Carlos Boozer and Matt Harpring
Great trade for everybody. The Jazz save some money (Jeffries and Harpring make the same, Boozer's 12.6 million is more than Lee's first year would be), rid themselves of Boozer, who has worn out his welcome, get a budding young PF who will thrive next to Deron Williams. Harpring at this point in his career is no more than a fringe player, and while Jeffries' contract has one more year on it, he may provide decent minutes. The Jazz can now decide whether they retain Millsap and run a very strong 3 man frontcourt rotation with Lee and Okur.
The Knicks get loads of cap space (both Boozer and Harpring come off the books at the end of the season) for 2010, unload one of their two preposterous contracts that continue after 2010 (the other being Eddy Curry's), and get an all-star caliber PF for the following season. Not to mention the possibility that Harpring may retire due to injury, leaving insurance to pay his contract. Finally, and maybe most importantly, they don't lose Lee in free agency without getting something in return.
Trades That Should Happen will be featuring regularly from here on out - just my humble contribution to a fascinating offseason so far.
The thing is, Paul Millsap is a player I have no idea what to think about. After two very solid years off the bench as a second round energy guy, he blossomed in Boozer's injury-induced absence to the tune of 16 pts (on 54.5% shooting), 10 reb, 1.2 stl and 1 block a game in 38 starts. Monster numbers, and an absolute bargain at 7-8 million per year.
However, I'm not sure that Millsap can keep this going on a regular basis. A look at his season splits show that his absolutely monstrous number for December and January went way down as the season progressed. Since Millsap is such a high energy guy, he wears and tears very quickly, and one must wonder if he can play with the same effectiveness over 40 minutes as he can over 28. This is why I think the Blazers are making such a smart move with Millsap - adding him to a rotation with 3 other bigs, including Lamarcus Aldridge to start in front of him at the 4. Paul Millsap is best used as a 6th man, someone who can energize the second unit, and then stay on the court in crunch time. Perfect fit for Portland.
However, if the Jazz aren't keeping Boozer - and they are reportedly trying very hard to get rid of him - Millsap doesn't make sense by himself. He simply can't hold the fort alone at the PF position. He doesn't have the stamina. If he gets it, he's a borderline all-star, but as of now, the Jazz either need someone else to fill in minutes in their frontcourt rotation, and allow Millsap to get his rest, or, they need to give up on Millsap and move Boozer for a better fit. Which brings us to a segment I like to call - Trades That Should Happen:
The New York Knicks sign David Lee to a 5 year, 50 million contract, then trade Lee and Jared Jeffries to the Utah Jazz for Carlos Boozer and Matt Harpring
Great trade for everybody. The Jazz save some money (Jeffries and Harpring make the same, Boozer's 12.6 million is more than Lee's first year would be), rid themselves of Boozer, who has worn out his welcome, get a budding young PF who will thrive next to Deron Williams. Harpring at this point in his career is no more than a fringe player, and while Jeffries' contract has one more year on it, he may provide decent minutes. The Jazz can now decide whether they retain Millsap and run a very strong 3 man frontcourt rotation with Lee and Okur.
The Knicks get loads of cap space (both Boozer and Harpring come off the books at the end of the season) for 2010, unload one of their two preposterous contracts that continue after 2010 (the other being Eddy Curry's), and get an all-star caliber PF for the following season. Not to mention the possibility that Harpring may retire due to injury, leaving insurance to pay his contract. Finally, and maybe most importantly, they don't lose Lee in free agency without getting something in return.
Trades That Should Happen will be featuring regularly from here on out - just my humble contribution to a fascinating offseason so far.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Latest Offseason moves
Cleveland signs free agent Anthony Parker, resigns Anderson Varejao:
I love the Parker move. Love it. Many fans will see it as a low-profile signing, one that could have been replaced by a bigger name, but in this free agent market, Parker is top notch. As one who lives in Israel saw Parker on a regular basis when he was playing for Maccabi Tel-Aviv, I can tell you that Parker is extremely underrated: excellent defender, creates his own shot, very good rebounder for his position (led Maccabi in rebounding as a SF). He wasn't the Euroleague MVP just because he's american. Great signing.
As for Varejao? Look, Cleveland had to resign him, and he had to resign. Both parties are perfect fits - there is no system better for Varejao than Cleveland. But at 6 years, 50 million? In this market? For a role player? I have no idea how Danny Ferry can defend this one. Good general thinking, terrible negotiating.
Antonio Mcdyess to Spurs
The Spurs do it again. After bringing in Richard Jefferson in a deal whose only downside was frontcourt depth, the Spurs use free agency for... wait for it... frontcourt depth! Perennialy one of the few franchises in the league who actually know what they're doing, the Spurs continue to retool around their big 3 in an attempt to get Tim Duncan his 5th championship. And they're great at it. Mcdyess is a legitimate starting center for any team in this league, and completes perhaps the best 5 in the NBA (I don't say starting 5 because Ginobili is a "bench player").
Chris Andersen resigns with Denver
Actually, I just wanted to talk about the Nuggets, with the Birdman just serving as a perfect example for my case. The Nuggets overachieved last year in the sense that they played much better than they were expected to. However, this was the result of basically everything falling into place for them: every single player on that team had something to prove, and every single one of them did. But what are the chances of that happening two years in a row? Look at Andersen. Last year: playing for the league minimum, after being suspended for drug use, trying to redeem himself. This year? fit for the rest of his career with a 5 year, 26 million deal which pays him until he's 36. Which player do you think will be more motivated?
Looking at the Denver Nuggets, they're virtually unchanged (Dahantay Jones left to the Pacers, Ty Lawson was brought in via draft). But inner complacency, combined with the Spurs retooling and the Blazers gaining valuable experience tells me that the Nugs will probably compete for the second round of the playoffs next year, and no more.
I love the Parker move. Love it. Many fans will see it as a low-profile signing, one that could have been replaced by a bigger name, but in this free agent market, Parker is top notch. As one who lives in Israel saw Parker on a regular basis when he was playing for Maccabi Tel-Aviv, I can tell you that Parker is extremely underrated: excellent defender, creates his own shot, very good rebounder for his position (led Maccabi in rebounding as a SF). He wasn't the Euroleague MVP just because he's american. Great signing.
As for Varejao? Look, Cleveland had to resign him, and he had to resign. Both parties are perfect fits - there is no system better for Varejao than Cleveland. But at 6 years, 50 million? In this market? For a role player? I have no idea how Danny Ferry can defend this one. Good general thinking, terrible negotiating.
Antonio Mcdyess to Spurs
The Spurs do it again. After bringing in Richard Jefferson in a deal whose only downside was frontcourt depth, the Spurs use free agency for... wait for it... frontcourt depth! Perennialy one of the few franchises in the league who actually know what they're doing, the Spurs continue to retool around their big 3 in an attempt to get Tim Duncan his 5th championship. And they're great at it. Mcdyess is a legitimate starting center for any team in this league, and completes perhaps the best 5 in the NBA (I don't say starting 5 because Ginobili is a "bench player").
Chris Andersen resigns with Denver
Actually, I just wanted to talk about the Nuggets, with the Birdman just serving as a perfect example for my case. The Nuggets overachieved last year in the sense that they played much better than they were expected to. However, this was the result of basically everything falling into place for them: every single player on that team had something to prove, and every single one of them did. But what are the chances of that happening two years in a row? Look at Andersen. Last year: playing for the league minimum, after being suspended for drug use, trying to redeem himself. This year? fit for the rest of his career with a 5 year, 26 million deal which pays him until he's 36. Which player do you think will be more motivated?
Looking at the Denver Nuggets, they're virtually unchanged (Dahantay Jones left to the Pacers, Ty Lawson was brought in via draft). But inner complacency, combined with the Spurs retooling and the Blazers gaining valuable experience tells me that the Nugs will probably compete for the second round of the playoffs next year, and no more.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Trying to understand the Mavs
The Dallas Mavericks have been as active as any team in the league since the beginning of free agent discussions on July 1st, reportedly resigning Jason Kidd (25 million, 3 years), signing the Magic's Marcin Gortat to an offer sheet (reportedly 30 million, 5 years), and now actively looking to acquire the Toronto Raptor's Shawn Marion in a sign-and-trade. Is there any reasoning behind this cluster of moves or is owner Mark Cuban reverting back to his days of collecting as many assets as possible?
Enough has been written about the Jason Kidd signing, so let me summarize: future hall-of-famer, 36 years old, significantly declining, still valuable as a leader, grossly overpaid. Probably covers it all up.
Moving to Gortat. The second year player out of Poland produced very will in a limited role as Dwight Howard's backup in Orlando, averaging 3.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 0.8 blocks in only 12 minutes per game, with a PER of 17.04. Dallas' starting center, Eric Dampier, had 5.7, 7.1 and 1.2 in 23 minutes per game, and a PER of 15.72. Given Dampier's minutes, Gortat is definitely an upgrade, especially considering that he gives Dallas the privilege of never needing to play Ryan Hollins again. Overall, a good signing.
However, Marion starts complicating things. Marion can play as a 3 or a 4, but the Mavs have very good players at both position: former all-star Josh Howard at the 3, and former MVP Dirk Nowitzki at the 4. Where does Marion fit?
I see two options. The first one - Dallas goes small. Dirk at the 5, Marion at the 4, Howard at the 3, with Kidd leading the fast break (something he doesn't do as brilliantly as his reputation suggests, but is still good at). Both Dirk and Marion have had many years of small ball playing with Steve Nash, and I doubt they would be against returning to that style of play. Marion, in particular, may even re-emerge as the all-star he once was, though his recent drop probably has more to do with him than with the systems he played in with Miami and Toronto. However, there is only one problem - the Mavs are signing Gortat. There is no way that Gortat can play small ball - not only is he a traditional center, he doesn't fit in with the potential rotation described above.
Which leads us to only one conclusion: if Marion comes, then Dallas will try to get rid of Josh Howard. The Mavs aren't going to keep 3 very highly paid forwards on the team, and seeing how Dirk is the face of the franchise, and Marion is unlikely to accept a bench role with his history of bickering and alpha dog aspirations, J-Ho is the odd man out. Maybe the Mavs are tired with his injuries and bizarre interviews, maybe they feel they can progress no more with him on their team, but the writing is on the wall.
Of course, this whole article may seems irrelevant tomorrow when Marion talks fall out for whatever reason. Or when the Mavs sign Marion, keep Howard, and implode. But that's just NBA free agency for you. So if - and that's a big if - this all falls into place, don't be surprised when Josh Howard wears a different uniform next season.
Enough has been written about the Jason Kidd signing, so let me summarize: future hall-of-famer, 36 years old, significantly declining, still valuable as a leader, grossly overpaid. Probably covers it all up.
Moving to Gortat. The second year player out of Poland produced very will in a limited role as Dwight Howard's backup in Orlando, averaging 3.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 0.8 blocks in only 12 minutes per game, with a PER of 17.04. Dallas' starting center, Eric Dampier, had 5.7, 7.1 and 1.2 in 23 minutes per game, and a PER of 15.72. Given Dampier's minutes, Gortat is definitely an upgrade, especially considering that he gives Dallas the privilege of never needing to play Ryan Hollins again. Overall, a good signing.
However, Marion starts complicating things. Marion can play as a 3 or a 4, but the Mavs have very good players at both position: former all-star Josh Howard at the 3, and former MVP Dirk Nowitzki at the 4. Where does Marion fit?
I see two options. The first one - Dallas goes small. Dirk at the 5, Marion at the 4, Howard at the 3, with Kidd leading the fast break (something he doesn't do as brilliantly as his reputation suggests, but is still good at). Both Dirk and Marion have had many years of small ball playing with Steve Nash, and I doubt they would be against returning to that style of play. Marion, in particular, may even re-emerge as the all-star he once was, though his recent drop probably has more to do with him than with the systems he played in with Miami and Toronto. However, there is only one problem - the Mavs are signing Gortat. There is no way that Gortat can play small ball - not only is he a traditional center, he doesn't fit in with the potential rotation described above.
Which leads us to only one conclusion: if Marion comes, then Dallas will try to get rid of Josh Howard. The Mavs aren't going to keep 3 very highly paid forwards on the team, and seeing how Dirk is the face of the franchise, and Marion is unlikely to accept a bench role with his history of bickering and alpha dog aspirations, J-Ho is the odd man out. Maybe the Mavs are tired with his injuries and bizarre interviews, maybe they feel they can progress no more with him on their team, but the writing is on the wall.
Of course, this whole article may seems irrelevant tomorrow when Marion talks fall out for whatever reason. Or when the Mavs sign Marion, keep Howard, and implode. But that's just NBA free agency for you. So if - and that's a big if - this all falls into place, don't be surprised when Josh Howard wears a different uniform next season.
Monday, July 6, 2009
Rasheed to Boston
Rasheed Wallace is taking his bald spot to Beantown next season for a deal (reportedly) in the 2 year, 12 million range. While Wallace is still, at the age of 34 (35 by the start of the season), a very good basketball player, is this really what the Celtics wanted to do with their offseason?
The Celtics had two glaring weaknesses las postseason: lack of depth, especially up front with Kevin Garnett injured; and a failure to fill the void left by James Posey, who filled a 6th man, defensive stopper role, while also consistently knocking down the 3 and enabling the Celts to play small. The Wallace signing all but closes the window on filling that Posey role: now that the Celts used their entire midlevel exception on Sheed, they have very little flexibility as to signing another wing. Unless Grant Hill signs with them for the minimum (still possible, but unlikely since both the Suns and the Knicks are reportedly offering him more money), that void will be left unfilled.
As for frontcourt depth. As a player who can play both the 4 and the 5, it would seems that the days of Brian Scalabrine getting crunch minutes are over. But are they?
Personally, I see no way that the Celtics can keep their own free agent, Glen Big Baby Davis, now that they brought Sheed. Davis emerged as an excellent mid-range shooter, a legitimate rotation (if not starting) PF, and a crunch time contributor (including a game winner in game 4 against the Orlando Magic) last postseason. In fact, one could argue that he was the Celtics best player in the Orlando series. Do you really think he would be content on returning to the Celts as their 4th big man? Not to mention the financial burden that would be his new contract (if Paul Millsap is worth 10 million per year then Davis is worth at least 5). So basically, the Celtics are trading Rasheed for Davis. While an upgrade, it's not a big one. Last season, Sheed avereged 12.1 and 7.4 on 42% shooting, in 32 minutes per game. Davis avereged 7 and 4 on 44% shooting in 21 minutes. In terms of per-minute production, that's almost the same, and this was even before Davis upgraded his play to a whole new level in the postseason.
To summarize, there were better moves out there. Whether it was filling a need just as important with a wingman (such as Grant Hill, Anthony Parker, or Josh Chilldress), or improving internally by signing a young talented player who has proven his value to the team (Davis). The Sheed signing may eventually pay off, but I think the Celtics were to fixated on a big-name veteran, which caused them to miss out on better options.
The Celtics had two glaring weaknesses las postseason: lack of depth, especially up front with Kevin Garnett injured; and a failure to fill the void left by James Posey, who filled a 6th man, defensive stopper role, while also consistently knocking down the 3 and enabling the Celts to play small. The Wallace signing all but closes the window on filling that Posey role: now that the Celts used their entire midlevel exception on Sheed, they have very little flexibility as to signing another wing. Unless Grant Hill signs with them for the minimum (still possible, but unlikely since both the Suns and the Knicks are reportedly offering him more money), that void will be left unfilled.
As for frontcourt depth. As a player who can play both the 4 and the 5, it would seems that the days of Brian Scalabrine getting crunch minutes are over. But are they?
Personally, I see no way that the Celtics can keep their own free agent, Glen Big Baby Davis, now that they brought Sheed. Davis emerged as an excellent mid-range shooter, a legitimate rotation (if not starting) PF, and a crunch time contributor (including a game winner in game 4 against the Orlando Magic) last postseason. In fact, one could argue that he was the Celtics best player in the Orlando series. Do you really think he would be content on returning to the Celts as their 4th big man? Not to mention the financial burden that would be his new contract (if Paul Millsap is worth 10 million per year then Davis is worth at least 5). So basically, the Celtics are trading Rasheed for Davis. While an upgrade, it's not a big one. Last season, Sheed avereged 12.1 and 7.4 on 42% shooting, in 32 minutes per game. Davis avereged 7 and 4 on 44% shooting in 21 minutes. In terms of per-minute production, that's almost the same, and this was even before Davis upgraded his play to a whole new level in the postseason.
To summarize, there were better moves out there. Whether it was filling a need just as important with a wingman (such as Grant Hill, Anthony Parker, or Josh Chilldress), or improving internally by signing a young talented player who has proven his value to the team (Davis). The Sheed signing may eventually pay off, but I think the Celtics were to fixated on a big-name veteran, which caused them to miss out on better options.
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