Random Opening Night Impressions

Despite watching real NBA basketball for the first time until June, I tried not to conclude too much from the 4 games that were on Opening Night. Many teams are still searching for their identity, and the bottom line is, what really matters is the form teams hit right around mid-April. However, here some things that I did find worth writing about from the two games I focused on (I got some action from the other two, but not enough to make extreme observations) - take them lightly, as it is still very, very early:

Boston 95, Cleveland 89

• Cleveland: After a very strong 1st quarter, Cleveland's offense collapsed, regressing back to that dreadful Lebron-vs-5 stage that we know all too well. If Mike Brown can't figure out a way to get the rest of the team involved, the Cavs will be in trouble.
• The Cavs really missed Delonte West last night. Daniel Gibson just isn't much more than a streaky spot-up shooter, leaving the Cavs with a very thing backcourt rotation, not to mention West being their best defensive guard. I don't know if and when West recovers from personal issues and comes back, and I truly hope that he does that only after regaining full mental health, but the Cavs probably need another guard even if he does return (Antonio Daniels has been mentioned).
• Anthony Parker too way too many bad, forced shots. Though he is fully capable of scoring at a high clip, this isn't the role he should fill for the Cavs.
• Shaquille O'neal and Zydrunas Ilgauskas can not play together under any circumstances. Each one of them is a defensive liability on their own, the two of them together is too much.
• Speaking of Z, he seemed incredibly uncomfortable coming off the bench. I don't think Shaq will agree to playing as a 6th man, but after years of establishing Z early in the game, the Cavs need to find a new way of keeping him effective. Shaq, on the other hand, struggled offensively in the second half (1 of 5 from the field) after a decent first one - he still has plenty of time to find his rythem, but if he can't score consistently in the post against big teams, his acquasition is kind of moot.


• Boston: Boston played great defense throughout the game, but I still have my concerns. The Celts couldn't do anything about Lebron, who torched them for 38 points on 22 shots. Admitedly, if Lebron wants to torch a team he will, but in my eyes Boston still lacks that Posey-type defensive presence at the wing positions that was so crucial for their 2008 title.
• Free Agent signee Rasheed Wallace looke awfully trigger happy, attempting six 3 pointers. It's too late in his career to move Sheed back in the post, but against teams with better defenders at the 4 spot he can't shoot that much.
• Kevin Garnett seemed healthy, but not spectacular, with 13 points (5 of 10 from the field), 10 rebounds, and 3 blocks. However, he did botch a wide open dunk. Lets not forget that the NBA season is very long, and it's KG's April form that will matter, eventually.
• Ray Allen had a very good first half, and a very bad second one. Allen has always been a very productive player, but I just can't shake off the feeling that he is mostly just a shooter at this stage of his career (one of the reasons I have Boston pegged as #3 in the East).

Portland 96, Houston 87

• Portland: Greg Oden was absolutely terrible offensivly, scoring only 2 points, and putting up 7 turnovers (many of them on offensive fouls - don't have the exact numbers with me). However, Oden produced a defensive display of the highest quality, grabbing 12 rebounds, blocking 5 shots, and altering many more. The Blazers are so stacked offensively, that they can afford to give Greg's offensive game time to evolve. If he continues defending like last night, it could be enough to make Portland an elite squad.
• Martell Webster started in place of the injured Nicolas Batum, and had a very efficient 14 points on 7 shots. Webster missed last season due to injury, but is a gifted scorer, with great athleticism. If Webster can start fulfilling the promise he has shown at time, the Blazers will benifit greatly, whether via a strengthed rotation, or by adding yet another trade asset to a seemingly infinite collection.
• Andre Miller showed no sign of his reported unhappiness after signing with the Blazers in the offseason, coming off the bench for 9 points and seven assists. I actually think Miller fits better with the Blazers second unit then the first, as starter Steve Blake's outside shooting better complements superstar Brandon Roy. It was nice to see Miller doing his best to fit in, since he has always been a player who has played well below his abilities due to a bad attitude.
• Travis Outlaw led all scorers with 23 points. The Blazers have reportedly been very open to trading Outlaw and his expiring contract, but the guy can just plain shoot. I don't really like seeing him at the 4 - he is a small forward in every way - but he can contribute regardless of position.

• Houston: David Andersen had 11 points and 5 rebounds in his NBA debut. I really like Andersen's offensive game - he was amongst the Euroleagues top big men for years - and he could prove to be a very valuable scorer for a Houston team that will struggle to put points up. Very underrated offseason pickup for the wonderful Daryl Morey.
• Chase Budinger could be another potential scorer for this team. The second round draft pick was once considered a lottery lock, but fell due to concerns about him being one dimensional - a scorer and not much else. With a team desperate for scoring, however, he could be huge.
• Aaron Brooks broke out last postseason when he carried the Rockets to a 7th game against the eventual champions, but I'm not sold. Brooks is way to small to guard shooting guards (he can barely guard point guards), but he plays like a 2. If Brooks doesn't develop a passing game, I don't think he can handle the ball. Brooks scored 19 last night, but he used the ball mainly for dribbling aimlessly in all directions. Not the guy you want distributing the ball to the rest of your team.
• I love Trevor Ariza. The Lakers wouldn't have won the title without him last year. But he's a role player - a perfect role player, but a role player nontheless. If this Houston squad turns to him as a leading scorer, they're in trouble.

The Portland Trailblazers

Coach: Nate McMillan
Last Season: 54-28, lost in 1st round
Key Additions: Andre Miller (Free Agent, Philadelphia 76ers), Jeff Pendergraph, Dante Cunningham, Patrick Mills (Draft), Jarron Collins (FA, Utah)
Key Losses: Sergio Rodriguez (Trade, Sacramento), Channing Frye (FA, Phoenix)

Offseason: The Blazers assembled one of the leagues youngest, most talented teams. Built around superstar Brandon Roy (mistakenly underrated as just a star), and power forward Lamarcus Aldridge, the team has steadily improved to the point of finishing 4th in the West last season. However, a lack of experience, and perimeter scoring other than Roy meant a 5 game knock out against the Houston Rockets.

Armed with ample cap space and a promising youngster, GM Kevin Pritchard sought out offensive help, specifically at the 3 and the 1. Pritchard’s top priority on the market was Hedo Turkoglu, hot off a great Finals run with the Magic, and fitting the bill perfectly with his clutch scoring and ball handling abilities in the problematic small forward spot. However, after agreeing to a 5 year, 50 million contract, Hedo U-turned and signed with the Toronto Raptors. However, it seems to me that the Blazers dodged a bullet here – Hedo is already 30 years old, meaning that he would have been way past his peak by the time this team reached theirs. He most definitely won’t be worth the money they were going to give him when he’s 35 and on the bench. After Turkoglu declined the Blazers’ offer, Portland turned to Utah’s restricted free agent, Paul Millsap. However, Utah matched Portland’s 4 year, 32 million offer, and the Blazers were again left without their man.

With the free agent market dwindling, the Blazers decided to address their weakness at point guard instead of their forwards, and signed Andre Miller to a three year, 21 million contract, with only the first two years guaranteed. Andre Miller should provide the Blazers with a veteran presence and some another ball-handler, though his style of play doesn’t mesh in very well with what the Blazers had last season. What the Blazers need from their point guard is a player who can knock down shots, and doesn’t really need the ball to be effective. Miller is a 21% career 3 point shooter, and is accustomed to dominating the ball on offense. In addition, the Blazers were the NBA’s second slowest offensive team last season (only Detroit had less possessions per game), and yet Miller, with his passing and his penetration, is much more suited to play a running style game. Despite these things, Miller is a good signing – he is a clear upgrade over Steve Blake, will provide a veteran presence and a tutor to Jerryd Bayless, and in case he doesn’t fit in, he will serve as a large expiring contract next season, but the Blazers have to feel disappointed that they couldn’t make more out of their favorable situation. Other offseason moves by the Blazers shouldn’t have much of an immediate effect on the team, as the three draftees won’t be asked to do much, and Jarron Collins is mainly a big-man insurance policy now that Channing Frye left.

Despite failing to sign their top-priority free agents, though, the Blazers should improve internally: Brandon Roy should cement his status as a superduperstar, not only with stat geeks and basketball maniacs, but with the mainstream media; Greg Oden is posed to have a monster season now that he’s 2 years away from microfracture surgery, already dominating preseason games and looking much nimbler; Lamarcus Aldridge will continue his ascension into the upper echelon of power forwards; and Spaniard sensation Rudy Fernandez, point guard Jerryd Bayless, and defensive ace Nicolas Batum will have their first NBA year under their belts. All in all, not a magnificent offseason for the Blazers, but they will be better next season.

X-Factors:
- Greg Oden: After being drafted before Kevin Durant in the much hyped 2007 draft, Oden missed his entire rookie campaign due to microfracture surgery. Last year he was back on the court, but seemed very slow, fouled frequently, and didn’t dominate the paint like the Blazers hoped. In his defense, the center position has a difficult learning curve, microfracture typically takes two years to recover from, and Oden did show some skills while on the court; however, this season there will be no excuses. Oden has the potential to be an all-time great at center, or “the guy drafted before Durant”. If he wants to be the former, he needs to give a strong showing this season.

- Continued development: As mentioned, the Blazers are an incredibly young team. This featured greatly in the playoff loss to Houston, where the Blazers just seemed scared of the big stage. As this team matures, it will become better and better, with plenty of potential not even given rotation time last season (mainly Bayless, and injured swingman Martell Webster). The rate at which these youngsters improve could determine whether Portland joins the rest of the contenders, or are given that “one-year-away” label.

- Kevin Pritchard: After (deservedly) gaining a reputation as one of the best GMs in the league, Pritchard has shown some hesitance to pull the trigger, failing to move Raef LaFrentz’ expiring contract, and mainly holding on to assets instead of looking to improve via trade. Pritchard has received criticism of falling in love with his own team. The Blazers are already very good, but have the assets to pull off a major move. Another Pritchard stroke of genius could propel them into contention.

- Nate McMillan: McMillan has done a great job coaching this squad, getting the Blazers to defend, and mainly execute offensively (2nd in offensive efficiency) very well. However, one can’t shake the feeling that this team should be flying down the court, not walking the ball up. Roy, Rudy, Travis Outlaw, Aldridge – most of Portland’s rotation is ridiculously athletic, and newly acquired Andre Miller is perfect for running fast breaks. This team will probably be good no matter what style they play, but as a fan, you have to hope Nate will just let this team go loose.


Prediction: Greg Oden is posed to explode, and I believe he’ll make his all-star debut in the dilute talent pool that is Western Conference centers; Roy should garner a respectable amount of MVP votes; Aldridge should become a 20 point scorer; and the supporting cast should get better and better as they adjust to NBA level play. 56-26, 3rd in the East, and even more optimism in the Pacific Northwest.

The Paul Millsap Situation

The Portland Trailblazers have signed the Utah Jazz's Paul Millsap to an offer sheet worth around 36 million for 4 years. Since Millsap is a restricted free agent, the Jazz have 7 days to match the offer, thus retaining Millsap. However, the Jazz are trying to cut costs, and with Mehmet Okur's 2 year 21 million extension, and Carlos Boozer and Kyle Korver deciding against opting out of their contracts, the Jazz are now committed to a lot of payroll. To add insult to injury, the Blazers have shrewdly added a very hefty signing on clause reportedly worth around 10.3 million to Millsap's offer, giving the Jazz even more financial headaches.


The thing is, Paul Millsap is a player I have no idea what to think about. After two very solid years off the bench as a second round energy guy, he blossomed in Boozer's injury-induced absence to the tune of 16 pts (on 54.5% shooting), 10 reb, 1.2 stl and 1 block a game in 38 starts. Monster numbers, and an absolute bargain at 7-8 million per year.


However, I'm not sure that Millsap can keep this going on a regular basis. A look at his season splits show that his absolutely monstrous number for December and January went way down as the season progressed. Since Millsap is such a high energy guy, he wears and tears very quickly, and one must wonder if he can play with the same effectiveness over 40 minutes as he can over 28. This is why I think the Blazers are making such a smart move with Millsap - adding him to a rotation with 3 other bigs, including Lamarcus Aldridge to start in front of him at the 4. Paul Millsap is best used as a 6th man, someone who can energize the second unit, and then stay on the court in crunch time. Perfect fit for Portland.

However, if the Jazz aren't keeping Boozer - and they are reportedly trying very hard to get rid of him - Millsap doesn't make sense by himself. He simply can't hold the fort alone at the PF position. He doesn't have the stamina. If he gets it, he's a borderline all-star, but as of now, the Jazz either need someone else to fill in minutes in their frontcourt rotation, and allow Millsap to get his rest, or, they need to give up on Millsap and move Boozer for a better fit. Which brings us to a segment I like to call - Trades That Should Happen:

The New York Knicks sign David Lee to a 5 year, 50 million contract, then trade Lee and Jared Jeffries to the Utah Jazz for Carlos Boozer and Matt Harpring

Great trade for everybody. The Jazz save some money (Jeffries and Harpring make the same, Boozer's 12.6 million is more than Lee's first year would be), rid themselves of Boozer, who has worn out his welcome, get a budding young PF who will thrive next to Deron Williams. Harpring at this point in his career is no more than a fringe player, and while Jeffries' contract has one more year on it, he may provide decent minutes. The Jazz can now decide whether they retain Millsap and run a very strong 3 man frontcourt rotation with Lee and Okur.

The Knicks get loads of cap space (both Boozer and Harpring come off the books at the end of the season) for 2010, unload one of their two preposterous contracts that continue after 2010 (the other being Eddy Curry's), and get an all-star caliber PF for the following season. Not to mention the possibility that Harpring may retire due to injury, leaving insurance to pay his contract. Finally, and maybe most importantly, they don't lose Lee in free agency without getting something in return.

Trades That Should Happen will be featuring regularly from here on out - just my humble contribution to a fascinating offseason so far.